Ukraine – history repeats itself (again)

I look at what’s happening in Ukraine and I think about September 1st, 1939, when first German bombs fell on Poland. Did people of Poland, of Germany and rest of Europe had expected this to become second world war? Were they worried about it or this possibility didn’t even crossed their minds?

The similarities are there. Hitler started with smaller conflicts, testing western countries if they walk their talk. He annexed Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 and western powers let him keep it hoping to avoid the escalation of conflict into another war, and loss of thousands or more lives. Great intentions, short-sighted, naive view. That’s a logic used by rational people, rational statesmen thinking of what’s best for people.

People like Putin, Hitler, Nicolae Ceaușescu, Benito Mussolini or Sadam Hussein, and many many more dictators of this world, they do not care what happens to the people. You can not use normal moral conduct standards with them. They are cruel, selfish men, with huge ego that is never satisfied. They are sociopaths, highly narcissistic men without any moral code. Power and bullying is the only language they understand.

They do not live in reality. They are surrounded by yes men, and any rational person is pushed aside. That’s how we get those wars. It was hard to understand in the past the mechanism of it but the last several years showed us many nations choosing that path into nationalistic darkness, where the loudest voices win, no matter how crazy they sound.

Putin followed Hitler’s plan successfully. He took Crimea from Ukraine few years ago and nothing had happened. It worried me than, and I did think of 1938. It also proved that international treaties are only as good as their leaders good will.

Ukraine declared independence from Russia after Cold War had ended, and that was a huge blow to Russia’s economy and the pride. Some never got over it, although through most of the history Ukraine was sovereign nation. After the split from Russia, it possessed third largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

The end of Cold War started very optimistic period of time. Cooperation between countries grew and threat of nuclear war seemed going away. Denuclearization had become the goal. Ukraine was asked to give up all its nuclear weapons and transfer them to Russia (what were we all thinking ???…). Many of Ukrainian politicians and citizens still felt that threat from Russia was real and were trying to keep part of it as a security tool against future attacks from Russia. US and Russia went out of their way and promised economic support and security assurances to Ukraine for full disarmament. Tri-lateral agreement has been signed on January 14, 1994.

Now, one of the countries that promised Ukraine security assistance is an invader. What will the other country do, and the rest of NATO, that’s the real question.

In those few weeks Poland accepted more than a million and half refugees from Ukraine. The resemblance to 1939 feels just too real. Private citizens, business and government are involved, but with this huge number (and still growing) they will need serious assistance from other nations, EU, and NATO. They are converting closed malls into refugee centers. Many refugees are staying in Polish homes, but this is temporary solutions. They all will need place to stay, food, money assistance, healthcare, school placements for kids along with language help, and eventually work. For a country of around 38 million citizens this is huge undertaking. There will be even more problems with this in the future. Making sure Ukrainians won’t become second class citizens in Poland will be a big challenge.

To give some perspective: before Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, Polish right wing government was talking about building a wall on Polish-Ukrainian border, following Trump’s idea. Its purpose was not only keeping illegal immigration of Ukrainian citizens to Poland, but also the Afghan refugees fleeing Afghanistan after US withdrawal. There were heartbreaking stories of Afghan kids dying of cold or hunger, hiding in the woods in Polish cold winter just few months ago. It divided Polish nation the way treatment of refugees on southern border divided US. People on the right side of political spectrum, holding cross and rosary and Jesus’s name on their lips, did not see those brown skinned people as humans, and their love of the neighbor did not extend to them.

It is great to watch all the help Poles are providing to the Ukrainian refugees now. It is beautiful show of support and coopearation, and the world is watching. Poland will always help anyone fighting against Russia, as the country has a thousand year history of having to defend itself from its two big neighbors: Russia and Prussia (Germany) . It is sad that its right wing government was so cold in its treatment of Syrian and afghan refugees. It is amazing though to see its citizens now working so hard, spending their own money to help the Ukrainian people.

What is the right course of action for the US, NATO, EU and the rest if the world to take now? Not to do anything feels cowardly and scary. To get military involved feels even more scary. But history taught us that doing nothing doesn’t solve problems, doesn’t stop crazy men in charge from pushing further and further. For now Ukrainian people are bravely defending their homes and land, but at what cost? What will happen if they lose and Russia starts occupying Ukraine? That won’t be the end of problems. The country will become another conflict are, with militia fighting its occupiers, children throwing rocks or bottles with fuel at the tanks. Ukraine-Polish border may become next goal of Vladimir Putin.